Upper Midwest Supercells Target 2-Inch Hail, Damaging Winds This Afternoon — SevereWX

Supercell Setup Takes Shape in Upper Mississippi Valley

Storms are firing up this afternoon across portions of southeastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and southwestern Wisconsin, fueled by a potent mid-level shortwave trough and strong westerly winds aloft.

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1164 highlights a 60% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in the next 1-2 hours. Modest but growing instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) combines with robust shear (40-50+ kts effective) and straight hodographs to favor supercell development. Expect large hail as the top threat, with peaks of 1.50-2.50 inches possible if a sustained supercell locks in. Damaging wind gusts of 55-70 mph loom from downdraft momentum, and a brief tornado can't be ruled out near the surface low west of Minneapolis.

Peak probabilities: Tornado intensity up to 90 mph, winds 55-70 mph, hail 1.50-2.50 inches.

This setup echoes recent Midwest action but zeroes in on the upper Mississippi River Valley. Radar shows increasing activity near the low—monitor for rapid upscale growth.

Stay prepared: Charge devices, know your safe spot, and have helmets ready for hail. Tune into local NWS offices (MPX, ARX, DMX) and apps for updates. Safety first as these storms pack a punch.