Western New York Storms Set to Pack Damaging 70 MPH Winds — SevereWX

Storms are ramping up along a cold front moving through the Lower Great Lakes, now eyeing western New York for a severe punch this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center's Mesoscale Discussion 1138 highlights increasing thunderstorm coverage and intensity spreading eastward into areas like Buffalo, Rochester, and surrounding regions. While cloud cover lingers over much of New York, breaks to the south and west are sparking enough heating to boost instability, with MLCAPE nearing 500 J/kg and steepening lapse rates.

Strong deep-layer wind shear is the star here, fueling organized storms capable of 55-70 mph wind gusts as the main hazard. Expect up to 1.25-inch hail and a lower-end tornado risk up to 90 mph (EF1 intensity). Activity peaks through late afternoon into early evening, valid until around 5 PM EDT.

SPC pegs watch issuance odds at 60%, signaling a good chance of a formal Severe Thunderstorm Watch. This setup mirrors wind-focused events but hits key populated spots, raising the stakes for power outages, downed trees, and travel disruptions.

Stay prepared: Monitor radar and local NWS updates via apps or NOAA Weather Radio. Secure outdoor items, avoid flooded roads, and have a severe weather plan ready. Check SPC's site for graphics and latest outlooks.