Supercells Eye 2.5-Inch Hail, Severe Gusts in Western SD, Northern NE as Watch Looms — SevereWX

Storms are sparking along a stationary boundary near Chadron, NE, with more development brewing in central South Dakota amid a weak shortwave trough nosing into eastern Wyoming.

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1534 highlights how surface heating is eroding low-level inhibition, setting the stage for greater storm coverage by late afternoon into early evening. A ramping low-level jet will boost upscale growth, potentially amplifying severe wind threats as convection shifts east.

Expect supercell structures favored by 40-45 kt effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates. Large hail up to 2.5 inches, damaging winds of 55-70 mph, and isolated tornadoes to 90 mph are the main hazards. Peak timings align with 3-6 PM CDT initiation expanding evening.

This setup impacts portions of western and central South Dakota plus far northern Nebraska. Watch issuance odds sit at 80% within the next hour.

Stay prepared: Monitor radar closely, secure outdoors, and have a severe weather plan ready—know your safe spot and local alerts.