Supercell Setup Targets 2.5-Inch Hail, Damaging Winds in Western SD, N Nebraska — SevereWX

Storms Building for Severe Hits in South Dakota, Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center has flagged a high chance of watch issuance for portions of western and central South Dakota, along with far northern Nebraska. An 80% probability means a watch could drop soon, covering late afternoon into early evening storm development.

Storms are already firing near Chadron, NE, along a stationary boundary, with more cumulus bubbling up in central South Dakota. As surface heating breaks the cap and the low-level jet ramps up, expect greater coverage by 4-6 PM CDT, peaking into evening.

With solid shear around 40-45 knots and steep lapse rates, supercells look likely. These could dish out large hail up to 2.5 inches and severe winds of 55-70 mph. Some upscale growth into clusters may boost the wind threat as storms ride east along the boundary.

Peak threats include:

This setup ties into broader Plains activity but zeros in on this SD-NE corridor. Keep eyes on radar as initiation trends continue.

Stay prepared: Monitor local NWS updates, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready. Know your safe spot indoors.