80-100 MPH Wind Risk Emerges Across Northeastern Wyoming into Dakotas — SevereWX

A potent corridor of severe wind damage risk (80-100 mph gusts) is developing this afternoon across northeastern Wyoming, southeastern Montana, and the western Dakotas.

Convection is rapidly building over the Big Horn Mountains in northern Wyoming as MLCIN erodes, per the latest SPC Mesoscale Discussion #1016. High-resolution guidance consistently shows clustered thunderstorms sparking here within the next couple of hours, then growing upscale into an intense MCS moving into southeastern Montana and western Dakotas by evening.

Strong surface heating ahead of a front, combined with dew points in the low/mid 60s, has boosted MLCAPE to 1000-2500 J/kg. Steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8.5 C/km) from recent soundings add fuel. Initial supercell clusters could produce large to very large hail (1.50-2.50 inches), but the main evening threat shifts to damaging winds as the system organizes.

Deep-layer shear will sustain the MCS late into the evening, with early WoFS runs highlighting a swath of severe-to-intense gusts. SPC pegs Severe Thunderstorm Watch odds at 95%.

Key Threats:

Areas at risk include northeastern WY (WYZ000), southeastern MT (MTZ000), western SD (SDZ000), and western ND (NDZ000). Monitor radar closely as storms evolve.

Stay prepared: Know your severe weather plan—secure outdoors, have multiple alerts enabled, and seek shelter if warnings issue. Check SPC.noaa.gov for updates.