Arizona's Midlevel Flow Drives 80 MPH Gusts From Terrain to Deserts — SevereWX

Thunderstorms are firing off higher terrain in southern and central Arizona, poised to deliver isolated severe wind gusts up to 80 mph as they spill into lower desert areas this afternoon and evening.

As of late afternoon, visible satellite imagery shows deepening cumulus building across southeast Arizona, with ongoing storms along the Mogollon Rim to the north. Steep midlevel lapse rates and plentiful midlevel moisture are boosting MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg, fueling further destabilization. Expect more thunderstorm development over elevated areas in the coming hours.

Midlevel easterly winds of 20-30 knots will steer this convection westward off the terrain and into the deserts. Organized storm clusters could pack the strongest punch, with the most probable peak gusts ranging 65-80 mph.

The Storm Prediction Center is eyeing this setup closely, pegging the odds of a severe thunderstorm watch at 60% within the next 1-2 hours. The threat focuses on parts of southern and central Arizona through early evening.

Stay prepared: Monitor local radar and NWS updates, secure loose outdoor objects, and avoid travel under storms to dodge damaging winds and blowing dust.