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Memphis, Tennessee — 7-Day Severe Weather Forecast
Updated
Today — Saturday, October 10: No Severe Threat
Primary hazards: heavy rain
There is a chance of rain showers today, and some areas could see heavy rain as remnants of Hurricane Isaias approach. High temperatures will be near 79°F, with overnight lows around 64°F. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Tomorrow — Sunday, October 11: No Severe Threat
It will be sunny with a high near 90°F and a low around 59°F. No rain or thunderstorms are forecast, and the environment will not support strong storms.
Day 3 — Monday, October 12: No Severe Threat
Expect a sunny day with a high near 93 degrees and a low around 68. There is no chance of rain. No severe storms are expected.
Extended Outlook (Days 4–7)
Day 4 — Tuesday, October 13: No Severe Threat
Temperatures on Tuesday will reach a high of 92 degrees, dropping to a low of 71 degrees overnight. It will be sunny, with both forecasts agreeing that the day will remain dry. Any storms are unlikely, and conditions are not favorable for them to become strong.
Day 5 — Wednesday, October 14: No Severe Threat
Temperatures will be very warm on Wednesday, with a high near 95 degrees and an overnight low around 76 degrees. One forecast keeps the day essentially dry, while another brings about 0.09 inches of rain, so showers are possible. Overall, any storms that develop are unlikely to be strong.
Day 6 — Thursday, October 15: No Severe Threat
Temperatures will be warm, reaching a high of 93 degrees during the day before falling to 78 degrees overnight. There is disagreement among forecasts regarding rain, with one suggesting about 0.17 inches of rain over three hours, while another indicates the day will remain dry. Based on the NWS forecast, there is a slight chance of rain showers during the day and night.
Day 7 — Friday, October 16: No Severe Threat
Temperatures will range from a low of 66 degrees to a high of 78 degrees on Friday. There is a slight chance of rain showers, though models disagree on the amount, with one suggesting around a third of an inch of rain while another indicates the day will be largely dry. If any storms do develop, they are unlikely to be strong.
Tornado and severe storm history near Memphis
34 tornadoes touched down within 25 miles of Memphis from 1996 to 2025, about 1.1 a year.
12 of them were rated EF2 or stronger. The strongest was the EF3 tornado of March 31, 2023, killing 4 and injuring 26.
47% came between March and May, and May alone had 18%. The latest in the record, which runs through 2025, came on May 18, 2025 (EF1).
Hail an inch or larger is reported about 11 times a year within 25 miles (2016 to 2025), and hail 2 inches or larger about once every 3 years. The largest stone measured 2.75 inches, on April 2, 2025.
Damaging wind is reported about 28 times a year; the strongest measured gust was 79 mph, on June 25, 2023.
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather database. A tornado counts if its track came within 25 miles of the city center. Hail and wind are storm reports, and one storm can produce many. spc.noaa.gov
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Written by AI from weather-model data and Storm Prediction Center outlooks. For information only: not a substitute for official National Weather Service watches and warnings. Full disclaimer