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Nashville, Tennessee — 7-Day Severe Weather Forecast
Updated
Today — Saturday, October 10: No Severe Threat
Primary hazards: lightning
Expect showers and thunderstorms throughout the day with a high near 68 degrees and a low around 62 degrees. These storms are not expected to become severe, but will bring lightning. Rain is likely at 95% chance during the day and 88% at night.
Tomorrow — Sunday, October 11: No Severe Threat
Expect scattered rain showers through the day, becoming partly sunny later. It will feel warm with a high near 74°F and a low around 60°F. Conditions do not look favorable for any strong storms.
Day 3 — Monday, October 12: No Severe Threat
Monday will be sunny with a high near 86 and a low around 62. Conditions are not expected to support strong storms. The day will be dry with very little cloud cover.
Extended Outlook (Days 4–7)
Day 4 — Tuesday, October 13: No Severe Threat
Tuesday will be sunny with a high temperature around 85 degrees and a low around 65 degrees. Both forecasts indicate the day will be essentially dry, with only a 1% chance of rain during the day and a 5% chance at night. Any storms are unlikely to be strong, as conditions are not favorable for their development.
Day 5 — Wednesday, October 14: No Severe Threat
High temperatures on Wednesday will reach the mid 80s, while lows will be in the low 70s, making it feel humid and muggy. One forecast keeps the day essentially dry, while another brings about a third of an inch of rain. Any showers or thunderstorms are unlikely to be strong.
Day 6 — Thursday, October 15: No Severe Threat
Temperatures will be warm, reaching a high around 90 degrees Fahrenheit during the day and falling to a low of 70 degrees at night. It will feel muggy. Showers or thunderstorms are possible during the day and night on Thursday, though one forecast suggests mostly dry conditions while another indicates around a fifth of an inch of rain.
Day 7 — Friday, October 16: No Severe Threat
Temperatures will be warm on Friday, with a high near 83 degrees and a low around 69 degrees. There is a slight chance of rain showers, with some models indicating between 0.09 and 0.26 inches of rain throughout the day. Conditions are not expected to support organized or severe storms.
Tornado and severe storm history near Nashville
104 tornadoes touched down within 25 miles of Nashville from 1996 to 2025, about 3.5 a year.
20 of them were rated EF2 or stronger. The strongest was the F3 tornado of April 7, 2006, killing 7 and injuring 128.
47% came between March and May, and May alone had 25%. The latest in the record, which runs through 2025, came on April 3, 2025 (EF1).
Hail an inch or larger is reported about 24 times a year within 25 miles (2016 to 2025), including about 2.2 a year 2 inches or larger. The largest stone measured 3 inches, on May 20, 2025.
Damaging wind is reported about 100 times a year; the strongest measured gust was 82 mph, on March 1, 2017.
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather database. A tornado counts if its track came within 25 miles of the city center. Hail and wind are storm reports, and one storm can produce many. spc.noaa.gov
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Written by AI from weather-model data and Storm Prediction Center outlooks. For information only: not a substitute for official National Weather Service watches and warnings. Full disclaimer