Tampa, Florida — 7-Day Severe Weather Forecast

Updated Oct 9, 3:29 AM ET

Today — Friday, October 9: No Severe Threat

Primary hazards: lightning, heavy rain

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Tampa area today, primarily during the afternoon and evening. While some storms could bring gusty winds and heavy downpours, the environment is not expected to support organized severe weather. Any storms that develop will move relatively quickly from south to north, but the possibility of cells moving over the same areas could lead to locally heavy rainfall. The NWS point forecast shows a 57% chance of rain during the day and a 43% chance at night. SPC Outlook: The Storm Prediction Center has issued a general thunderstorm area for today, indicating organized severe weather is not expected, and our model data generally aligns with this assessment.

Tomorrow — Saturday, October 10: No Severe Threat

Primary hazards: lightning, heavy rain

Showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout Saturday, with a 60% chance of rain during the day and 53% at night. While locally heavy rain is possible, the faster movement of storms should prevent widespread flooding, though training cells could lead to higher rainfall in some areas. Any storms are unlikely to be strong, as conditions do not support significant organization or intensity. It will feel humid and muggy with surface moisture remaining high. SPC Outlook: The Storm Prediction Center has issued a General Thunderstorm area for this region, and our model data supports this with limited energy for severe weather.

Day 3 — Sunday, October 11: No Severe Threat

Sunday will see scattered showers, with a higher chance during the day diminishing into the night. Around 0.23 inches of rain are expected, but faster storm movement should prevent prolonged heavy rainfall in any single spot. However, if bands of showers and storms align, some areas could see locally higher totals. Dangerous rip currents will persist along area beaches through Sunday. SPC Outlook: The Storm Prediction Center has no risk area here today, and our assessment also indicates no severe weather is expected.

Extended Outlook (Days 4–7)

Day 4 — Monday, October 12: No Severe Threat

Temperatures are expected to reach the mid-80s during the day and drop into the low 70s overnight. Both forecast models suggest a dry day with no rainfall. Thunderstorms are unlikely, and conditions are not favorable for organized severe weather.

Day 5 — Tuesday, October 13: No Severe Threat

Temperatures will reach 87 degrees during the day, dropping to 72 degrees overnight. The air will feel quite humid. Showers and thunderstorms are not expected, with both forecasts indicating a dry day on Tuesday.

Day 6 — Wednesday, October 14: No Severe Threat

Temperatures will reach 87 degrees in the afternoon with an overnight low of 72 degrees. It will feel muggy. Wednesday is expected to be sunny with both forecasts keeping the day essentially dry. Showers and thunderstorms are not anticipated.

Day 7 — Thursday, October 15: No Severe Threat

High temperatures will reach the upper 80s, with overnight lows around 71 degrees. It will feel humid, but both forecasts indicate a mostly dry day with sunny skies. The chance of rain is very low.

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Written by AI from weather-model data and Storm Prediction Center outlooks. For information only: not a substitute for official National Weather Service watches and warnings. Full disclaimer