Friday, Oct 9: Arizona has thunderstorms in the outlook but no severe risk. Saturday: Marginal Risk. Sunday: Marginal Risk.
The Storm Prediction Center's outlook for Arizona over the next three days, and what a typical severe weather year looks like here.
SPC outlook for Arizona
Day 1 (Friday, October 9): General thunderstorms
Day 2 (Saturday, October 10): Marginal Risk
Day 3 (Sunday, October 11): Marginal Risk
Arizona city forecasts
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Severe weather in Arizona, by the numbers
Arizona averages 4.8 tornadoes a year (1996–2025). One rated EF2 or stronger comes about once every 5 years.
55% of them touch down between August and October, and October alone accounts for 20%. The busiest year on record in that span was 2010, with 15.
Storm reports average about 35 for large hail a year (hail 2 inches or larger is reported about once a year) and 151 for damaging wind (2016–2025).
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather database. Tornadoes are counted in the state where they began. One storm can produce many reports. spc.noaa.gov