Topeka, Kansas — 7-Day Severe Weather Forecast

Updated Oct 10, 5:51 AM ET

Today — Saturday, October 10: No Severe Threat

Expect a sunny day with highs near 87°F and overnight lows around 59°F. No rain is forecasted, and conditions are not favorable for any strong thunderstorms.

Tomorrow — Saturday, October 10: No Severe Threat

Tomorrow will be sunny and very hot, with a high near 86 degrees and a low around 62. There is no chance of rain. No strong storms are expected.

Day 3 — Monday, October 12: Marginal Risk

Primary hazards: large hail, damaging winds

Monday will be sunny with a high near 88°F and a low around 72°F. The environment is favorable for strong storms that could produce large hail and damaging winds. No SPC outlook was issued.

Extended Outlook (Days 4–7)

Day 4 — Tuesday, October 13: No Severe Threat

Temperatures on Tuesday will reach a high of 78 degrees and fall to a low of 66 degrees. One model suggests about 0.33 inches of rain, while another keeps the day essentially dry. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially overnight. Any storms that develop are unlikely to be strong.

Day 5 — Wednesday, October 14: Marginal Risk

Primary hazards: damaging winds, large hail

Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Wednesday with a high temperature around 66 degrees and a low temperature of 62 degrees. The Storm Prediction Center has flagged this area with a 15% chance of severe weather within 25 miles, primarily from damaging winds and large hail. Rainfall could range from around 0.80 inches to 1.70 inches, with some periods of heavy rain possible. Conditions could help storms organize.

Day 6 — Thursday, October 15: No Severe Threat

Thursday will see temperatures reach 72 degrees Fahrenheit, with overnight lows around 63 degrees Fahrenheit. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, with one forecast suggesting around 0.4 inches of rain, while another indicates up to 1.7 inches. Any storms that develop are unlikely to be strong, though it will feel humid.

Day 7 — Friday, October 16: No Severe Threat

Friday will be a cool day, with temperatures reaching a high of 58 degrees and dropping to a low of 52 degrees. There is a slight chance of rain showers during the day. Overall, conditions are expected to be dry, with very little rainfall anticipated.

Tornado and severe storm history near Topeka

61 tornadoes touched down within 25 miles of Topeka from 1996 to 2025, about 2 a year.

6 of them were rated EF2 or stronger. The strongest was the EF4 tornado of May 28, 2019, injuring 4.

70% came between April and June, and May alone had 44%. The latest in the record, which runs through 2025, came on May 19, 2024 (EF0).

Hail an inch or larger is reported about 25 times a year within 25 miles (2016 to 2025), including about 1.9 a year 2 inches or larger. The largest stone measured 4.5 inches, on July 11, 2020.

Damaging wind is reported about 49 times a year; the strongest measured gust was 89 mph, on July 19, 2018.

Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather database. A tornado counts if its track came within 25 miles of the city center. Hail and wind are storm reports, and one storm can produce many. spc.noaa.gov

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Written by AI from weather-model data and Storm Prediction Center outlooks. For information only: not a substitute for official National Weather Service watches and warnings. Full disclaimer