Black Hills Thunderstorms Surge East with 70 MPH Winds Toward South Dakota Plains — SevereWX

Thunderstorms are firing up over the Black Hills in southwest South Dakota, setting the stage for a push eastward across the plains into adjacent northwest Nebraska this evening.

The Storm Prediction Center's Mesoscale Discussion flags a 60% chance of a watch as these storms deepen amid strong heating and plentiful low-level moisture. Low 60s dewpoints combined with steep lapse rates near 9 C/km are fueling buoyancy for robust updrafts. While deep-layer shear is modest at around 25 knots, high-res models suggest storms could organize into clusters capable of 55-70 mph wind gusts. Quarter-size hail (up to 1.25 inches) is also possible.

Convection started with weak upslope flow but will ride westerly winds aloft, potentially growing upscale. SPC forecasters note uncertainty in storm intensity due to the kinematic setup, but cold pools should drive propagation and damaging downdrafts.

This setup impacts areas from Rapid City eastward through South Dakota and into northwest Nebraska through around 4 PM CDT. Trends are being closely watched for escalation.

Stay prepared: Review your severe weather plan, charge devices, and monitor local NWS updates or apps like SevereWX.net for real-time alerts. Seek shelter if storms approach.