Central SD Supercells Intensify Toward Northern Nebraska with Hail, Gust Threats — SevereWX

Central SD Supercells Intensify Toward Northern Nebraska with Hail, Gust Threats

Storms are bubbling up across central South Dakota this afternoon, fueled by clearing skies, 80s temperatures, and dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s F. This combo is sparking MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg—plenty of juice for severe action.

The SPC's latest Mesoscale Discussion (1802) flags an 80% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch through 8 PM CDT. Expect supercell structures initially, supported by 20-30 kt deep-layer shear and veering winds. Large hail up to 1.25 inches and damaging gusts to 55-70 mph are the main concerns, with peak tornado potential around 90 mph.

As the afternoon progresses, storms may cluster, ramping up wind threats into northern Nebraska. Development ties to mid-level ascent over the central and northern Plains, following morning convection.

This setup builds on earlier activity but shifts focus eastward. Keep an eye on areas from central SD (near Pierre and Chamberlain) spilling into northern NE (around Valentine and O'Neill).

Stay prepared: Monitor radar and local NWS updates. Have a severe weather plan—secure outdoors, seek shelter if warnings issue, and charge devices. Safety first as these storms pack a punch.