Dakotas Supercells Load Up for 80 MPH Gusts, Giant Hail Threat — SevereWX

Dakotas Supercells Load Up for 80 MPH Gusts, Giant Hail Threat

Developing thunderstorms across portions of southern North Dakota into northern South Dakota are showing signs of rapid intensification, per SPC Mesoscale Discussion #1663.

As of late afternoon on July 19, 2026, cumulus towers in far southwestern ND and northwestern SD are gaining vertical height amid lingering daytime heating and a southeastward-moving cold front. Isolated storms already dot Perkins and Meade Counties in SD, with more growth expected soon.

Key Threats:

• Severe Winds: Outflow gusts to 80+ mph (most probable 75-90 mph), potentially significant as storms organize into clusters.
• Large Hail: Up to 2-3+ inches (most probable 2-3.5 inches) from initial high-based supercells.

Steep lapse rates, 30 kts of effective shear, and elongating hodographs support splitting supercells early, transitioning to wind-dominant clusters moving east. SPC pegs Severe Thunderstorm Watch odds at 80% through 7 PM CDT.

This setup mirrors recent Plains volatility, but the hail and wind combo packs a punch for the region. Keep an eye on areas near Bismarck, Pierre, and Aberdeen.

Stay Prepared: Have a severe weather plan—seek shelter indoors away from windows, monitor radar updates via NOAA Weather Radio or apps, and report hail/wind damage to local NWS. Safety first as storms evolve.