Warm Advection Fuels Storm Intensification Across KS-MO Late Tonight — SevereWX

Warm Advection Fuels Storm Intensification Across KS-MO Late Tonight

A stationary frontal zone stretching from northern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas is setting the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms late this evening. North of the boundary, cool and very moist air clashes with hotter, mixed conditions to the south, creating ideal ingredients for storm growth.

Current Setup and Trends

• One storm has already intensified just east of Wichita, with increasing convective showers farther north into east-central Kansas.
• Strengthening low-level warm advection combined with an approaching midlevel shortwave trough over western Kansas will boost storm coverage.
• Environments feature MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective shear of 35-45 knots, supporting organized convection despite some lingering MLCINH.

Storms could evolve into supercells initially, posing risks of:

• Hail: 1.00-1.75 inches
• Damaging winds: 55-70 mph gusts
• Tornadoes: Brief spin-ups up to 90 mph

As activity spreads into western and northern Missouri, expect storm clustering by late evening. While storms may become more elevated, clusters could amplify wind threats. Modest lapse rates might cap the overall intensity, but short-term trends could prompt a mesoscale discussion watch.

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1839 highlights this 10 PM-12 AM CDT window (060200Z-060400Z). Monitor radar closely as one storm's recent upscale growth signals broader potential.

Stay Prepared: Review your severe weather plan, ensure mobile alerts are active, and have a safe room ready. Check updates from local NWS offices (ICT, TOP, EAX, SGF, LSX) for the latest.