Enhanced Risk Over OK/KS; MDs Flag Plains Severe — June 23, 2026 — SevereWX

The Storm Prediction Center issues an Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms across the Southern Plains on June 23, focusing on areas around Amarillo, Texas; Oklahoma City, Moore, and Tulsa, Oklahoma; and Wichita, Kansas, where Slight risk probabilities apply. Mesoscale discussions overnight highlight evolving severe potential stretching from the northern High Plains southward into Oklahoma and Texas, with ingredients for damaging winds and large hail in play. No watches or warnings are active at this time, but forecasters monitor for thunderstorm development as the morning progresses.

Timeline

8:20 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Watches Issued for Southeast Montana to Northeast Colorado

The Storm Prediction Center issues a mesoscale discussion detailing severe thunderstorm potential across the High Plains of southeast Montana into northeast Colorado. In response, Severe Thunderstorm Watches 376 and 377 go into effect for the region. Storms in this area could produce damaging winds and large hail through the evening hours.

12:44 AM EDT — Mesoscale Discussion Targets Eastern Wyoming, Southwest South Dakota, Nebraska

Forecasters at the SPC issue another mesoscale discussion focusing on severe weather threats in eastern Wyoming, southwest South Dakota, and northwest into north-central Nebraska. Severe thunderstorms remain possible, but the chance of needing a watch stays low at around 20 percent. Activity here contributes to broader Plains concerns early on June 23.

1:51 AM EDT — Mesoscale Discussion for Southwest Oklahoma, North Texas

A new mesoscale discussion from the SPC outlines severe potential across southern and southwest Oklahoma, extending over the Red River into far northern Texas. Thunderstorms could intensify with risks of strong winds and hail, though a watch appears unlikely with only a 20 percent probability. This update aligns with the day's Enhanced risk outlook farther east.

What's Next

As daylight spreads across the Southern Plains, isolated thunderstorms may spark and grow, tapping into Enhanced risk ingredients for damaging gusts, large hail, and a low-end tornado chance. Forecasters watch closely for any escalation warranting watches or warnings later today.

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