Update: Supercell Setup Targets 2-Inch Hail Over Northern Iowa, SE Minnesota — SevereWX

Storms are firing up along a surface trough in northeast Iowa amid strong heating, with potential to evolve into splitting supercells capable of large hail up to 2 inches—especially in western areas where steeper mid-level lapse rates prevail.

A weak mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) and cloud cover linger over central and southern Wisconsin, but destabilization is underway, boosting the severe threat into southwest Wisconsin over the next few hours. Further east along the cold front, convective coverage should ramp up later this afternoon despite some delays from clouds.

Effective shear around 40-45 knots from mid-level winds on the upper low's southern flank supports long, straight hodographs ideal for supercell motion. Damaging winds to 60 mph are also in play, per SPC's most probable peaks of 1.50-2.50 inch hail and 60 mph gusts.

This Mesoscale Discussion (2024) flags an 80% chance of a watch issuance through 4:45 PM CDT, covering northern Iowa into southeast Minnesota and southwestern Wisconsin. Activity remains scattered but bears watching as it matures.

Stay prepared: Monitor local NWS updates, have multiple alert sources ready, and secure outdoor items before storms arrive. Know your safe spot indoors away from windows.