Gulf Coast Thunderstorms Load Up for 70 MPH Gusts, Hail This Afternoon — SevereWX
Damaging winds and isolated hail are the main concerns as thunderstorms fire across eastern Texas into the central Gulf Coast this afternoon and evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued Mesoscale Discussion 2066, highlighting scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along a cold front from northern Mississippi westward into northeastern Texas. Remnant outflows from overnight storms, the coastal sea breeze, and a mid-level circulation (MCV) over central Alabama are providing extra lift in this extremely unstable and humid air mass.
Surface temps are soaring into the upper 90s°F with dewpoints near 75°F, fueling MLCAPE over 3000-3500 J/kg. Even with weak shear (under 20 knots), high precipitable water (1.75-2+ inches), steep low-level lapse rates, and 20-25 knot low-to-mid level winds will drive water-loaded downbursts with gusts of 55-70 mph most likely. A core or two could also produce marginally severe hail up to 1.25 inches.
SPC pegs the odds of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch at 60% within the next 1-2 hours, covering areas served by WFOs including HGX, FWD, SHV, LCH, LIX, JAN, and MOB. The risk peaks through 8 PM CDT.
Check the SPC graphic for the latest outlook. Storms could impact populated spots from Houston eastward to Lake Charles, New Orleans, and Mobile.
Stay weather-aware: Monitor local warnings, secure outdoor items, avoid flooded roads, and have a severe weather plan ready if you're in the path.
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