Update: Cold Front Ignites Supercell Threat with Hail, Gusts in Eastern MN/NW WI — SevereWX

Cold Front Fuels Rising Severe Risk in Eastern Minnesota, Northwestern Wisconsin

A potent cold front slicing through the Upper Midwest is sparking thunderstorms that could pack a serious punch this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center highlights a 60% chance of a watch as storms organize along the boundary in portions of eastern Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin.

Storms are bubbling up now amid favorable instability—MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg with minimal inhibition. Initial supercells may form, primed for large hail up to 1.75 inches (ping pong ball size), especially northward where cooler mid-level temps steepen lapse rates.

Expect damaging wind gusts of 55-70 mph as storms evolve into multicell clusters and lines racing eastward. A brief tornado isn't off the table, thanks to enhanced low-level shear shown in Duluth radar data and model soundings—peak intensity could hit 90 mph.

Shear is modest at 25-35 knots with 6-6.5 C/km lapse rates, but the setup supports impactful storms through late afternoon. Watch issuance looms in the next 1-2 hours if development accelerates.

Stay tuned to SPC for updates. Preparedness tip: Secure outdoor items, have multiple alert sources ready, and know your safe spot if storms approach.

Issued: August 25, 2026 | MD 2126

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