Update: Cold Front Storms Charge Up for Winds and Hail in Eastern Corn Belt to Michigan — SevereWX

A cold front slicing through the Midwest is fueling thunderstorms that could pack damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail as large as 1.75 inches (golf ball size) across portions of the eastern Corn Belt into southern Lower Michigan.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued Mesoscale Discussion 2137 around 12:22 PM CDT, highlighting the setup for this afternoon and early evening (valid until around 2:15 PM CDT). Surface dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60s°F are pooling near the front, with some spots in central Illinois reaching the low 70s°F. Combined with surface heating and southeasterly winds, this is boosting instability to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in a narrow corridor.

Storms are intensifying over southwestern Michigan, with new development expected along the front from central Illinois northeastward. Effective shear of 25-30 knots should organize storms into multicell clusters or marginal supercells, favoring primarily wind damage. Large hail is also in the mix, and while low-level winds limit it, a brief tornado isn't out of the question (peak potential up to 90 mph).

SPC notes some uncertainty due to modest shear, giving a 40% chance of a severe thunderstorm watch. Affected areas span parts of central/northern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and southern Michigan.

Stay prepared: Monitor local radar and warnings via NOAA Weather Radio or apps. Have a severe weather plan, secure outdoor items, and seek shelter in an interior room on the lowest floor if storms approach. Check updates at spc.noaa.gov.

City forecasts

• Indianapolis, IN
• Evansville, IN
• Chicago, IL
• Peoria, IL
• Springfield, IL
• Fort Wayne, IN
• South Bend, IN
• Columbus, OH
• Cincinnati, OH
• Dayton, OH