Michigan Supercells Target Large Hail, Damaging Winds with Watch on Horizon — SevereWX

Storms are ramping up across eastern Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Michigan this evening, fueled by a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet pulling in moist, unstable air. The SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1679 highlights an 80% chance of a severe thunderstorm watch before 1 AM EDT.

Expect organized storm modes, including supercells and bowing segments, as large-scale ascent from an upper jet streak overspreads the area. Primary risks include large hail (1.00-1.75 inches) and damaging wind gusts (55-70 mph). While storms may ride slightly elevated on a shallow inversion—limiting the tornado odds—low-level shear could still spark brief spin-ups up to 85-110 mph.

Forecast soundings show deep-layer shear supporting storm longevity, with activity shifting southeast from Lake Michigan into the threat zone. Peak timing aligns with evening hours through midnight.

Key Forecast Parameters:

• Most probable peak hail: 1.00-1.75 inches
• Most probable peak wind: 55-70 mph
• Most probable peak tornado: 85-110 mph

Northern Lower Michigan, including areas near Traverse City, faces the brunt. Monitor radar closely as storms evolve.

Preparedness Tip: Secure outdoor items, have multiple alert sources ready (NOAA radio, apps), and know your safe room. Stay tuned to SPC and local NWS updates for watch issuance.