Warm Leans Persist in Southwest and South, Northeast Wet Tilt in NOAA Outlooks — SevereWX

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's newest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks point to some clear patterns emerging for late August into early September. These are probabilities for above- or below-normal conditions compared to the long-term average for those periods—not specific forecasts or day-by-day predictions. A 60-80% chance of above normal simply means the odds tilt toward warmer (or wetter) than typical for that time of year, when late summer norms are still quite warm in the Southwest but easing elsewhere.

Temperature signals stand out in the Southwest and parts of the South. For the 6-10 day window, Texas leads with an 80% lean above normal, joined by 70% odds in Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah, and 60% in Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi. This warm bias holds into the 8-14 day view, with Texas and New Mexico at 70%, Arizona and Louisiana at 60%, and 50% chances across Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, and Florida. Expect stretches leaning hotter than late August averages in these areas—think extended warm spells rather than daily peaks.

Precipitation tells a different story up north. The Northeast sees a 50% above-normal tilt for 6-10 days across Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Rhode Island—favoring wetter-than-average periods. This signal softens to 40% for 8-14 days in the same region, with Oregon joining at 40%. A wet lean here could mean more shower chances over the average dry spells typical this time of year.

Overall, plan for warmer tendencies across the Southwest and South, potentially amplifying late summer feels, while the Northeast might enjoy added moisture. These patterns can shift, so check updates as we get closer.