Warm Leans Solidify Across Southern Plains and Southeast into Early September — SevereWX

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's latest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks point to elevated probabilities for above-normal temperatures across much of the southern U.S., with Oklahoma showing the strongest signal at 80% in the near term. These are odds favoring warmer-than-average stretches compared to the 30-year climate normal for those periods—not guarantees of daily highs or specific weather events. Keep in mind, normals shift with the calendar, so late August warmth differs from spring benchmarks.

States like Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi lean 60-70% above normal through early September, joined by Texas at 70% in the 8-14 day view. This suggests multi-day periods that could feel more like peak summer than the easing typical of the season's end.

On precipitation, the Northwest sees above-normal odds: Oregon and Washington at 50% for 6-10 days, with Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota also in the 40% range through the 8-14 day outlook. Expect potential for wetter stretches there, contrasting drier leans elsewhere.

Overall, plan for warmer slants in the South—ideal for outdoor plans if you like the heat—while the Northwest preps for possible added moisture amid otherwise variable patterns.