Warm Leans Solidify Across Southern Plains and Southeast, Wetter Tilt Westward — SevereWX

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's latest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks highlight a clear tilt toward above-normal temperatures across the southern Plains including Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma, plus stretches into the Southeast. These probabilities—reaching 80% in some spots—mean the upcoming periods have good odds of averaging warmer than the long-term climate normals for early September, suggesting stretches with less cooling relief than typical for the season.

Precipitation patterns show a different story out West, with above-normal chances leaning into Oregon, Washington, California, and spots like Idaho, Nevada, and Arizona. This could translate to wetter weeks overall in those areas, while Oklahoma sees a tilt toward below-normal rain later in the outlook period. Remember, these are odds for the full stretch being anomalously wet or dry, not day-by-day predictions.

For folks in the warm-leaning zones, expect weeks that feel more summery than the calendar suggests, as early September normals are already cooling from peak heat—above them means sticking closer to hotter late-August vibes. Western readers might plan for added moisture chances, potentially greening things up.

Normals evolve with the season, so these leans are relative to what's typical then, helping gauge patterns without pinning exact weather.