Southeast Texas Thunderstorms Poised for 70 MPH Damaging Winds — SevereWX

Southeast Texas Thunderstorms Poised for 70 MPH Damaging Winds

Stifling heat near 100°F and dewpoints in the upper 70s are fueling thunderstorm development across portions of southeast Texas this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued Mesoscale Discussion 1710, noting a 40% chance of a targeted Severe Thunderstorm Watch as storms organize along a weak confluence zone.

Expect southwestward-moving clusters of thunderstorms to bring the primary risk of damaging wind gusts between 55-70 mph. High buoyancy with MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, combined with very high precipitable water (2.55 inches) and enhanced shear from the western edge of Tropical Storm Bertha, will support strong downdrafts in these well-mixed storms. Mid-level winds of 35-45 knots at 3-4 km will aid propagation.

The affected area spans from near Houston southwestward toward the Victoria/Corpus Christi vicinity, impacting a densely populated region during peak afternoon heating. While lapse rates are modest, the extreme instability and humid profiles heighten the wind potential—no primary hail or tornado threats are highlighted.

Storms should initiate within the next 1-2 hours, peaking through early evening. Monitor radar closely as clusters strengthen.

Stay prepared: Secure outdoor items, avoid flooded roads, and have multiple alert sources ready. Know your safe room and keep devices charged for updates from NWS Houston/Odessa, Lake Charles, and Shreveport.