Arizona MCS Cold Pool Targets 110°F Lowlands for Violent 75+ MPH Downbursts — SevereWX

Violent winds are brewing in central Arizona as a loosely organized Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) sags south-southwestward off higher terrain toward the scorching lowlands.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues Mesoscale Discussion 1732, highlighting a cluster of multicell and pulse storms evolving into this MCS. As its cold pool advances into a deeply mixed boundary layer with surface temperatures exceeding 110°F and dewpoints in the 50s°F, massive evaporative cooling potential emerges.

SPC notes 1500-2000 J/kg of DCAPE amid 50-60°F surface temperature/dewpoint spreads. This setup screams embedded downbursts, with several severe gusts possible this afternoon and evening. A couple could top 75 mph, per the discussion, with the most probable peak at 65-80 mph. One or more haboobs may also roar to life, slashing visibility in the dust-choked winds.

Watch issuance odds sit at 60% within the valid period through 2345Z. Areas from the lat/lon box (roughly parts of Maricopa and Pinal counties) should brace for impacts.

Stay weather-aware: secure loose outdoor objects, avoid travel if haboobs form, and monitor NWS Phoenix (FGZ) and Tucson (TWC) for updates and warnings.