Central Arizona MCS Downbursts Target 110°F Heat for 80 MPH Fury — SevereWX

A loosely organized MCS is drifting south-southwestward off higher terrain into central Arizona's brutal heat this evening, setting the stage for damaging downbursts.

Surface temperatures soaring above 110°F meet 50s°F dewpoints, fueling 1500-2000 J/kg DCAPE and wide 50-60°F T/Td spreads. This combo primes the MCS's cold pool for potent evaporative cooling, potentially driving multiple severe gusts to 75+ mph, with the most probable peaks at 65-80 mph.

As the storm cluster overspreads the deeply mixed boundary layer in lower terrain, embedded downbursts could erupt violently. One or more haboobs—massive dust walls—may also form, slashing visibility and amplifying hazards for drivers.

SPC highlights a 60% chance of watch issuance within the next few hours for portions of central Arizona. This setup echoes recent wind threats but stands out for its desert heat amplification.

Stay prepared: Secure outdoor items, avoid travel if dust storms hit, and monitor radar for sudden gust fronts. Have a severe weather plan ready.