Instability-Loaded Storms Set to Spark Severe Hail, Gusts in Northeast SD, Central MN — SevereWX

An approaching front is priming the pump for strong to severe thunderstorms across northeast South Dakota and west-central into central Minnesota this evening.

The Storm Prediction Center highlights a growing risk as early as 6-8 PM CDT, with isolated to scattered storms capable of producing large hail up to 2.5 inches and wind gusts of 65-80 mph. Surface observations show upper 80s temperatures paired with 70s dewpoints, fueling around 4000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Plentiful low-level moisture (PW over 1.8 inches) and 25-knot effective shear support potent storm modes.

Model guidance points to initial development near the ND/SD/MN borders, within the southern fringe of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #466, with additional activity possible farther southeast into northeast SD and west-central MN. While storm coverage and exact evolution remain uncertain, mesoscale conditions are favorable for at least some severe outcomes through late evening.

SPC assigns a 60% probability to issuing a new watch, underscoring the genuine potential here. Keep an eye on radar as skies clear under a thin cirrus shield.

Stay prepared: Monitor local NWS updates, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready if you're in the risk area.