Michigan's Eastern U.P., North Lower Face Supercell Onslaught: Large Hail, 70 MPH Winds Ahead — SevereWX

Storms are ramping up across eastern Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Michigan this evening, fueled by a potent upper-level jet streak pushing in from the west.

The SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1679 highlights increasing severe potential, with an 80% chance of a tornado watch issuance before 01Z. A strengthening southwesterly low-level jet is injecting moisture and instability, allowing supercells and bowing segments to organize as they cross Lake Michigan.

Primary Hazards:

• Large Hail: Up to 1.75 inches (golf ball size)
• Damaging Winds: Gusts to 70 mph
• Limited Tornado Risk: Peaks at 85-110 mph (EF1-EF2), tempered by slightly elevated storm bases

Deep-layer shear supports structured storm modes, keeping threats robust despite the near-surface inversion. Expect activity to peak later tonight into early Tuesday.

Northern Lower Michigan communities from Traverse City eastward, plus eastern U.P. spots like Sault Ste. Marie, should prepare. Track updates via local NWS offices (APX, GRR, MQT).

Stay prepared: Monitor radar, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready. Know your safe spot indoors away from windows.