Lake Michigan Supercells Charge Eastern Michigan with Large Hail, 70 MPH Gusts — SevereWX

Storms are ramping up across eastern Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Michigan this evening, fueled by a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet pumping in moisture and instability.

The SPC's latest Mesoscale Discussion (1679) highlights supercells and organized storm modes spreading southeast from Lake Michigan, potentially producing large hail up to 1.75 inches and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph. While a shallow near-surface inversion may keep storms slightly elevated—reducing the tornado risk—deep-layer shear will sustain robust structures like supercells and bowing segments.

Expect the action to intensify before 01Z (8 PM EDT), with an 80% chance of a severe thunderstorm watch. Peak threats include EF1-intensity tornadoes (85-110 mph), but winds and hail take center stage.

This setup ties into a broader jet streak exit region over Wisconsin, boosting ascent and destabilization from the west. Ongoing storms will evolve as they cross the lake, targeting areas from Marquette to Gaylord and north of Traverse City.

Stay prepared: Monitor radar closely, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready. Check local NWS offices (APX, GRR, MQT) for updates. Safer in a sturdy shelter if warnings hit.

(Map lat/lon points trace the threatened zone; view SPC graphics for visuals.)