Supercells Strengthen Over Lake Michigan, Eyeing Eastern UP and North Lower with Large Hail — SevereWX

Supercells Strengthen Over Lake Michigan, Eyeing Eastern UP and North Lower with Large Hail

Storms are ramping up this evening across eastern Upper Michigan (U.P.) and northern Lower Michigan as an upper-level jet streak drives large-scale lift into the region. A strengthening southwesterly low-level jet is pulling in richer moisture and instability from the west, fueling ongoing supercells and bowing segments.

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1679 highlights a high-end severe potential, with an 80% chance of a watch issuance before 01Z (8 PM EDT). Primary threats include large hail to 1.75 inches (golf ball size) and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph. Deep-layer shear supports organized storm modes, though a shallow near-surface inversion may keep storms slightly elevated, limiting the tornado risk despite solid low-level shear.

Forecast soundings point to peak hazards later this evening as storms spread southeast from Lake Michigan into the discussion area. Expect supercells capable of hefty hail cores and wind-driven bow echoes.

Most probable peaks:

This setup mirrors recent Michigan activity but intensifies tonight under ideal forcing. Monitor radar closely as storms evolve.

Stay prepared: Review your severe weather plan, ensure mobile alerts are on, and seek shelter if warnings are issued. Have helmets or pillows ready for hail protection. Check SPC for updates.