Southeasterly Winds Supercharge Tornado Potential in Missouri Supercells — SevereWX

Supercells with peak tornado and wind risks target central/eastern Missouri where southeasterly surface winds boost low-level rotation.

Afternoon heating is rebounding instability across central and eastern Missouri into western Illinois after morning storms cleared out. A surface low over central Iowa is steering modest southwesterly flow aloft, while a key nose of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE shifts north from the southwest. Visible satellite imagery reveals cumulus fields growing increasingly agitated along an approaching front.

This setup primes the pump for severe thunderstorm redevelopment over the next few hours. Storms should ignite both near the front and along convergence tied to a central Missouri surface trough. With deep-layer shear of 35-40 knots, expect organized supercells.

The prime threats: damaging straight-line winds gusting to 70 mph and a couple of tornadoes rated 85-110 mph (EF1-EF2). Tornado odds look highest where surface winds veer southeasterly, maximizing low-level shear in central/eastern Missouri near the trough. Hail up to 1.25 inches is also possible.

A mesoscale discussion highlights 80% odds for watch issuance within the next couple hours to cover these risks, affecting areas under WFOs including St. Louis (LSX), Springfield (SGF), and Paducah (PAH).

Stay alert through the evening commute—conditions could turn severe quickly. Prepare now: Ensure your severe weather plan includes multiple alerts sources, know your safe spot, and have a go-bag ready.

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