Missouri Storms Poised for Supercell Tornadoes Near Surface Trough — SevereWX

A new round of severe thunderstorms is gearing up across much of central and eastern Missouri into western Illinois this afternoon. Behind morning storms, the atmosphere is rebounding with temperatures climbing into the mid-80s and MLCAPE surging to 1000-2000 J/kg from the southwest.

Visible satellite imagery reveals cumulus fields growing increasingly agitated ahead of an approaching front. This setup, combined with a surface trough in central Missouri, is fueling surface convergence ripe for storm redevelopment over the next couple of hours.

Expect deep-layer shear of 35-40 knots to organize these storms into supercells, with the primary risks being damaging winds of 55-70 mph and a couple of tornadoes rated 85-110 mph—strongest where southeasterly surface winds boost low-level shear. The most favorable tornado zone hugs the central/eastern Missouri trough.

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1810 pegs watch issuance odds at 80% within the next 2 hours (valid until around 4 PM CDT). Peak hail could reach 1.25 inches.

This threatens evening commutes around areas like Columbia, Jefferson City, and into the St. Louis metro. Monitor radar closely and have a severe weather plan ready—know your safe spot, charge devices, and stay alert via NOAA Weather Radio or apps.