Missouri Instability Surge Sets Stage for Supercell Tornadoes — SevereWX

A recovering airmass in Missouri is fueling a renewed severe weather threat this afternoon. Behind morning thunderstorms, temperatures have climbed into the mid-80s with southwesterly flow bringing in richer theta-e air. SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg shifting north into north-central Missouri, while visible satellite imagery reveals cumulus towers agitating near an approaching front.

This setup should spark redevelopment of thunderstorms within the next couple of hours, both along the front and a central Missouri surface trough. Expect 35-40 kt deep-layer shear to organize these into supercells, posing the primary risks of damaging winds up to 70 mph and a couple of tornadoes—strongest where southeasterly surface winds boost low-level shear across central/eastern Missouri.

Hail up to 1.25 inches is also possible. With an 80% chance of a watch issuance soon, residents from Kansas City eastward through St. Louis and into western Illinois should monitor closely as storms intensify through evening.

Peak Threats:

Stay alert—have multiple alert sources, secure outdoors items, and know your safe shelter spot.