Missouri Air Mass Recovery Fuels Supercells with Tornado, Wind Threats — SevereWX

Missouri Air Mass Recovery Fuels Supercells with Tornado, Wind Threats

Afternoon heating is rebounding instability across central and eastern Missouri after morning storms cleared out, setting the stage for supercells to fire into western Illinois.

Behind today's early thunderstorms, theta-e air is surging northward from the southwest, boosting MLCAPE to 1000-2000 J/kg in north-central Missouri. Visible satellite imagery reveals increasingly agitated cumulus clouds lining up near an approaching front. A surface low over central Iowa is steering modest southwesterly flow aloft, while surface temperatures climb into the mid-80s.

These ingredients point to redevelopment of severe storms within the next couple of hours—both along the front and a central Missouri surface trough where convergence is ramping up. Deep-layer shear of 35-40 knots favors supercellular storm modes. Expect damaging winds as the primary threat (most probable peak gusts 55-70 mph), with a couple of tornadoes possible (85-110 mph intensity). Tornado odds look highest near the trough where southeasterly surface winds maximize low-level shear.

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion #1810 pegs watch issuance odds at 80% within the next 1-2 hours, covering much of central/eastern Missouri into western Illinois. Peak hail could reach 1.25 inches.

This setup unfolds through late afternoon into evening, potentially disrupting Friday commutes around St. Louis and beyond.

Stay prepared: Monitor radar closely, have a severe weather plan, and know your safe spot indoors. Check SPC updates at spc.noaa.gov for watch alerts.