Missouri Surface Trough Sparks Supercell Tornado Potential into Illinois — SevereWX

A recovering air mass in Missouri is fueling a fresh round of severe weather threats this afternoon. After morning thunderstorms cleared out, temperatures have climbed into the mid-80s with southwesterly flow bringing in richer theta-e air. SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE surging to 1000-2000 J/kg northward into north-central Missouri, while visible satellite imagery reveals increasingly agitated cumulus near an approaching front.

Storms should redevelopment soon near the front and along surface convergence tied to a central Missouri trough. Expect supercells thanks to 35-40 kt deep-layer shear. Primary concerns include damaging winds up to 70 mph and a couple of tornadoes, with the best tornado odds where southeasterly surface winds boost low-level SRH—right along that trough in central/eastern Missouri.

Peak threats: EF1-2 tornadoes (85-110 mph), wind gusts 55-70 mph, hail to 1.25 inches. A watch is likely within the next couple hours to cover much of central/eastern Missouri into western Illinois.

This setup has evening implications for populated areas. Monitor radar closely as storms evolve.

Stay prepared: Have a severe weather plan, know your safe spot, and enable wireless alerts for real-time warnings.