Severe Warnings: AL/CO/TN/NM/OK; Tornado Watches: Central MO; Slight Risk — July 31 — SevereWX

The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms on July 31, 2026, covering areas around Lubbock, Texas, and St. Louis, Missouri. These regions face threats of damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps isolated tornadoes if storms organize. Overnight and morning mesoscale discussions flagged low-end severe chances farther north and west, but the focus now shifts to central and eastern Missouri into western Illinois, where an 80% probability of a severe thunderstorm watch underscores imminent storm development potential.

No watches or warnings are active at this time, but conditions are ripe for escalation this afternoon.

Timeline

10:44 PM EDT — SPC Mesoscale Discussion Flags Severe Risk Near Nebraska/Iowa

SPC issues a mesoscale discussion highlighting severe thunderstorm potential across southern and eastern Nebraska and adjacent southwestern Iowa. This update references Severe Thunderstorm Watch 535 already in effect for the area. However, forecasters assess the watch issuance probability at 0 percent moving forward.

2:07 AM EDT — Minimal Severe Threat in Northeast Kansas; Watch Unlikely

SPC releases another mesoscale discussion for a small portion of northeast Kansas, noting limited severe potential. Forecasters determine a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely, pegging the probability at just 5 percent. Storms in this area pose minimal organized severe risk.

3:13 PM EDT — Severe Storms Loom Over Central/Eastern Missouri to Western Illinois; Watch Likely

The latest SPC mesoscale discussion targets much of central and eastern Missouri into western Illinois, where severe thunderstorm potential is building rapidly. With an 80 percent chance of a severe thunderstorm watch — a high-confidence signal — damaging wind and hail threats are expected if storms fire soon. This area aligns with the Slight risk zone near St. Louis.

3:56 PM EDT — Severe T-Storm Warning: Baldwin/Mobile, AL

NWS has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Baldwin and Mobile counties in Alabama until 4:30 PM EDT. These storms may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. Seek shelter if you're in the path.

3:57 PM EDT — Severe T-Storm Warning: El Paso Co., CO

A severe thunderstorm warning is now active for El Paso County, Colorado until 4:45 PM EDT. Expect potential for strong winds and large hail from this storm. Stay indoors and away from windows.

4:03 PM EDT — SPC MD 1811: Severe Potential in Eastern NM, TX Panhandle, SW OK

The Storm Prediction Center issued Mesoscale Discussion 1811 for parts of eastern New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, and southwest Oklahoma. Storms there have potential to become severe with damaging winds and large hail. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible, with a 40% probability.

4:10 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Baldwin Co., AL

A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for Baldwin County, Alabama, until 4:30 PM EDT. This storm could produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. Seek shelter right away if in the warned area.

4:13 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Fayette/Hardeman/Haywood Cos., TN

Severe thunderstorm warning now active until 5:00 PM EDT for Fayette, Hardeman, and Haywood counties in Tennessee. Expect damaging winds and large hail from this storm. Move to a sturdy shelter immediately.

4:22 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Baldwin, AL

Storms with damaging winds and large hail have triggered a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Baldwin County, Alabama. The warning is active until 5:15 PM EDT. Seek shelter if storms approach your location.

4:26 PM EDT — Tornado Watch: Central MO Counties

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 12:00 AM EDT for Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Cole, Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade, Iron, Lincoln and Moniteau counties in Missouri. Storms could produce tornadoes, large hail and strong winds. Stay weather-aware and prepare for possible warnings.

4:27 PM EDT — Tornado Watch: Central MO Counties

Another Tornado Watch until 12:00 AM EDT covers Cooper, Howard and Randolph counties in Missouri. Rotation in storms raises tornado risk along with severe hail and gusty winds. Have a plan ready.

4:28 PM EDT — Tornado Watch: S-Central MO Counties

Tornado Watch issued until 12:00 AM EDT for Camden, Dent, Douglas, Howell, Laclede, Maries, Miller, Morgan, Oregon, Ozark and Pulaski counties in Missouri. Expect potential for tornadoes amid severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates closely.

4:29 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning: El Paso, CO

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is active until 4:45 PM EDT for El Paso County, Colorado. Expect damaging winds and large hail from intense storms. Take cover immediately if in the warned area.

4:30 PM EDT — SPC MD 1812: Severe Risk CO/NM

SPC forecasters note severe weather potential in central and eastern Colorado plus northeastern New Mexico. However, a watch is unlikely at this time. Storms may still bring hail and strong winds.

4:37 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Fayette/Hardeman, TN

A severe thunderstorm warning is now in effect until 5:00 PM EDT for Fayette and Hardeman counties in Tennessee. Expect strong winds and large hail with this storm. Seek shelter if threatening your area.

4:57 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued northeast New Mexico

A severe thunderstorm warning is now in effect until 5:45 PM EDT for Colfax and Union Counties in northeast New Mexico.

Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats from this storm.

If you're in the warned area, seek shelter indoors away from windows.

5:06 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Jackson, OK

A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect until 5:45 PM EDT for Jackson County in Oklahoma. This storm packs damaging wind gusts and large hail. Take shelter if it's heading your way.

5:13 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Colfax/Union, NM

Severe thunderstorm warning now active until 5:45 PM EDT across Colfax and Union Counties, New Mexico. Expect strong winds that can cause damage and hefty hail. Stay indoors and monitor updates.

5:13 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Greer/Harmon/Jackson, OK

A severe thunderstorm warning until 6:00 PM EDT covers Greer, Harmon, and Jackson Counties in Oklahoma. Damaging winds and large hail threaten the area. Have a safe spot ready.

What's Next

Severe storms will persist across the southern Plains and Southeast under the Slight Risk outlook this evening. Tornado watches remain in place for central Missouri where storms could organize further. Keep an eye on radar for rapidly developing threats.

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