Missouri Supercells Gear Up for Tornadoes, Damaging Winds into Western Illinois — SevereWX

Central and eastern Missouri face a growing severe weather threat as supercells develop ahead of an approaching front.

The Storm Prediction Center's latest Mesoscale Discussion highlights increasing potential for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes through the late afternoon and evening. Air mass recovery behind morning storms has boosted instability, with MLCAPE climbing to 1000-2000 J/kg in north-central Missouri. Agitated cumulus fields near the front signal imminent storm redevelopment.

Expect supercells fueled by 35-40 kt deep-layer shear, posing the primary risks:

• Damaging winds: Most probable gusts of 55-70 mph.
• Tornadoes: EF1-EF2 intensity (85-110 mph) favored where low-level shear peaks along the central Missouri surface trough.
• Hail: Up to 1.25 inches.

Storms could ignite near the front and surface convergence zones within the next couple of hours. An 80% chance of a watch issuance covers much of central/eastern Missouri into western Illinois.

Stay prepared: Monitor radar closely, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan. Know your safe spot indoors away from windows. Check local NWS updates for the latest.