Jet Streak Ignites Supercells Over ND-MN Line with 3.5-Inch Hail, EF2 Twisters — SevereWX

Storms are intensifying along a stubborn outflow boundary stretching from northern Minnesota into southern Manitoba, setting the stage for explosive development across northern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

CINH is rapidly eroding in northeast North Dakota amid mid-to-upper 80s temperatures and low-to-mid 70s dewpoints, uncapping a juicy airmass. A potent mid-level jet streak—packing 45-50 knots—is sliding in from the north, with ascent already showing up as mid-level clouds over north-central ND. Expect this lift to trigger widespread surface-based storms within the next 1-2 hours.

Scattered supercells will dominate through late afternoon and evening, posing risks for all severe hazards. Standout threats include very large hail (2-3.5 inches) fueled by steep lapse rates, deep instability, and robust upper-level flow. Tornado potential peaks to EF2 strength (85-110 mph) near the differential heating boundary in far northeast ND and northern MN, where richer 70s dewpoints lurk.

Winds could gust to 55-70 mph in the strongest storms. SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1722 flags a 60% chance of a watch by late afternoon (valid until 5 PM CDT).

Stay weather-aware this afternoon. Monitor radar closely, have multiple alert sources, and prepare a safe room or shelter plan for hail, winds, and possible tornadoes. Check SPC.noaa.gov for updates.