Surface-Based Supercells Set to Fire in Northern ND-MN with Baseball Hail, EF2 Tornado Risk — SevereWX

Surface-Based Supercells Poised to Ignite

Storms are bubbling up along an outflow boundary stretching from northern Minnesota into southern Manitoba, and forecasters expect them to intensify rapidly. As cap strength erodes in northeast North Dakota amid mid-80s heat and 70s dewpoints, surface-based thunderstorms—including supercells—should explode within the next couple hours.

A mid-level jet streak is diving in from the northwest, bringing 45-50 knot winds aloft and lift that will trigger widespread development. Steep lapse rates, stout instability, and veering shear profiles favor a volatile storm mode through evening.

Key Threats:

• Very Large Hail: Up to 3.50 inches probable, thanks to supercell updrafts and poor equilibrium levels.
• Tornadoes: EF2 intensity (85-110 mph) most likely near the boundary in northeast ND and northern MN, where rich low-level moisture pools.
• Damaging Winds: Gusts to 70 mph in stronger cells.

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion #1722 flags a 60% chance of a watch by late afternoon, covering northern ND into northwest MN through 9 PM CDT.

This setup screams severe—stay tuned for watch updates and monitor radar closely.

Preparedness: Have a severe weather plan ready. Identify your safe spot, charge devices, and heed local warnings to protect against hail, winds, and spin-ups.