Warmer-Than-Average Pattern Favored for Southwest and Southern Plains Next Week — SevereWX

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's latest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show a clear signal for above-normal temperatures across much of the Southwest and Southern Plains. These probabilities—like 70% odds in Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico for Aug. 23-27—mean the stretch is more likely than not to run warmer than the late-August average, though any given day could vary.

Texas stands out with the strongest heat lean at 70% through both periods, joined by New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado at 60% or better. Parts of the Southeast, including Alabama, Arkansas, Florida and Louisiana, also tilt warmer at 50-60%. Remember, late August normals are already toasty, so these leans suggest extended warmth rather than extremes.

Precipitation signals are weaker but notable: Texas leans below normal at 40% for the 6-10 day window, pointing to a drier stretch amid the heat. The Northeast, from New England to New York, favors above-normal rain at 40% odds early next week.

Overall, plan for a warmer bias in the South if you're there—great for pools, less so for energy bills—while Northeast folks might see some beneficial moisture.