Smoke-Shrouded Storms Test Severe Limits in Northern Wisconsin — SevereWX

Smoke and Outflows Challenge Northern Wisconsin's Severe Storm Setup

A tricky mesoscale puzzle is unfolding across central and northern Wisconsin into western Upper Michigan. Storms fueled by low-level warm air advection are racing toward a ribbon of extreme instability—up to 4000 J/kg MLCAPE from steep lapse rates over juicy mid-70s dewpoints—paired with 50 knots of shear.

Peak Threats

• Winds: 75-90 mph gusts if an MCS forms
• Hail: 2-3.5 inches
• Tornadoes: Possible EF2 intensity (85-110 mph)

The catch? Stout MLCINH, outflow boundaries, lake breezes, and a smoky plume from Canada wildfires could stifle development. SPC notes the risk is conditional: ongoing cells might intensify soon, or new ones later tonight per some models like WoFS. A watch issuance sits at 60% odds within the next couple hours.

Convective trends will dictate if a severe wind swath carves through the area. The GRB sounding underscores the volatile environment, but limitations abound.

Stay Prepared: Monitor radar closely, secure outdoors, and have a severe weather plan. Alerts could ramp up fast—check local NWS offices (GRB, MQT, MPX) for updates.

(Valid through ~10 PM CDT. SPC MD 1751.)