Shortwave Trough Fuels Evening Supercells Over Kansas-Missouri — SevereWX

Shortwave Trough Fuels Evening Supercells Over Kansas-Missouri

A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough approaching from western Kansas is set to boost storm development along a diffuse baroclinic zone stretching from east-central Kansas into western and northern Missouri. Strengthening low-level warm advection is enhancing instability, with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective shear of 35-45 knots providing a conditionally favorable setup for organized convection.

Storms are already intensifying east of Wichita, with increasing showers noted farther north in east-central Kansas. These could evolve into supercells capable of producing 1.00-1.75-inch hail, 55-70 mph wind gusts, and even a brief tornado up to 90 mph. As activity spreads eastward into western Missouri late evening, expect a tendency toward clustering, potentially elevating damaging wind threats even if storms become more elevated.

The SPC highlights a 40% chance of watch issuance within the next couple hours (10 PM - 12 AM CDT) if trends support a sustained severe risk. Modest lapse rates may cap the overall threat magnitude, but any maturing supercell warrants caution.

Timing: Peak concerns through midnight CDT, focused eastern KS to western/northern MO.

Stay prepared: Review your severe weather safety plan, keep devices charged for alerts, and monitor radar via local NWS offices (ICT, TOP, EAX, SGF, LSX). Have helmets or helmets ready for hail protection and seek shelter for any tornado warnings.