Marginal Storms Fade Across Southwest — August 5 — SevereWX

Scattered severe thunderstorms are producing warnings across parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and Kansas this evening under a Marginal risk from the Storm Prediction Center. A tornado warning is currently in effect for Cochise County in southeastern Arizona until 11:00 PM EDT, alongside several severe thunderstorm warnings for damaging wind and large hail. Earlier in the day, the SPC highlighted isolated severe potential in southern Arizona, the Raton Mesa region, and briefly in southeastern Nebraska.

Storms remain active now in the Southwest, but most mesoscale discussions indicate watches are unlikely with low probabilities.

Timeline

8:51 PM EDT — Mesoscale Discussion for Southeastern Arizona

The Storm Prediction Center issued a mesoscale discussion concerning Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538 for southeastern Arizona. Storms in the area prompted the watch earlier, with potential for severe weather through the overnight hours.

12:25 AM EDT — Mesoscale Discussion for Eastern Arizona Border Vicinity

SPC issued another mesoscale discussion related to Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538, focusing on the eastern Arizona international border vicinity. Activity was being monitored for severe thunderstorm potential into the early morning.

1:01 AM EDT — Mesoscale Discussion for SE Nebraska to SW Iowa

The SPC highlighted isolated severe potential in parts of southeastern Nebraska through southwestern Iowa. A mesoscale discussion noted the threat but indicated a watch was unlikely.

4:13 PM EDT — Mesoscale Discussion for Raton Mesa in NM/CO

SPC issued a mesoscale discussion for portions of the Raton Mesa in New Mexico and Colorado into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Isolated severe storms were possible, though a watch remained unlikely with a 20% probability.

7:15 PM EDT — Mesoscale Discussion for Southern Arizona

The Storm Prediction Center released a mesoscale discussion for portions of southern Arizona, outlining severe potential. Officials assessed a 20% chance for a watch, but deemed it unlikely.

9:54 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Cochise County, AZ

A severe thunderstorm warning is active for Cochise County, Arizona, until 11:00 PM EDT. Storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are moving through the area.

9:56 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Graham County, AZ

The National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Graham County, Arizona, until 11:00 PM EDT. Expect possible hail and strong wind gusts from ongoing thunderstorms.

10:05 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Santa Cruz County, AZ

A severe thunderstorm warning covers Santa Cruz County, Arizona, until 11:00 PM EDT. Residents should seek shelter from potential damaging winds and hail.

10:09 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Mora County, NM

Severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for Mora County, New Mexico, until 11:15 PM EDT. Thunderstorms may produce large hail and gusty winds.

10:23 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Elk & Greenwood Counties, KS

A severe thunderstorm warning is active for Elk and Greenwood Counties, Kansas, until 10:45 PM EDT. Storms could bring damaging winds and large hail to the region.

10:29 PM EDT — Tornado Warning for Cochise County, AZ

A tornado warning is in effect for Cochise County, Arizona, until 11:00 PM EDT. Radar indicates a possible tornado, and people in the area should take cover immediately.

10:30 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Greenwood, KS

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for Greenwood County, Kansas, until 11:30 PM EDT. Storms may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. Seek shelter if strong winds or hail approach.

10:35 PM EDT — Tornado Warning: Cochise, AZ

NWS has issued a Tornado Warning for Cochise County, Arizona, in effect until 11:00 PM EDT — could be extended or cancelled by NWS. A tornado capable of destruction is possible in the area. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor immediately.

10:37 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Cochise, AZ

Severe Thunderstorm Warning now active for Cochise County, Arizona, until 11:15 PM EDT. Expect possible damaging winds and large hail from these powerful storms. Stay alert and have a safety plan ready.

10:38 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Santa Cruz, AZ

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning covers Santa Cruz County, Arizona, expiring at 11:00 PM EDT. Storms could bring strong winds capable of damage and very large hail. Take cover away from windows.

10:42 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Mora, NM

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for Mora County, New Mexico, until 11:15 PM EDT. These thunderstorms may produce destructive wind gusts and large hailstones. Monitor radar and local alerts closely.

10:43 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Cochise & Graham, AZ

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Cochise and Graham Counties, Arizona, active until 11:45 PM EDT. Dangerous winds and hail are possible with these storms. Prepare to protect yourself and property.

10:44 PM EDT — Tornado Warning: Cochise, AZ

Another Tornado Warning is now in effect for Cochise County, Arizona, until 11:15 PM EDT — could be extended or cancelled by NWS. Take tornado safety precautions right away. A tornado threatens the warned area.

10:53 PM EDT — Tornado Warning for Cochise County

A tornado warning is now in effect until 11:15 PM EDT for Cochise County and could be extended or cancelled by NWS. Radar indicates a possible tornado. Take shelter in an interior room on the lowest floor right away.

10:57 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Santa Cruz County

A severe thunderstorm warning is active until 11:30 PM EDT for Santa Cruz County. Expect damaging wind gusts and large hail. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

10:59 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Pima County

A severe thunderstorm warning took effect until 11:15 PM EDT for Pima County. Strong winds capable of downing trees and power lines are possible along with large hail. Seek shelter inside immediately.

How It Ended

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538 expired without tornadoes or significant damage in southeastern Arizona. Storms weakened rapidly in stable air across southern Arizona and the Raton Mesa region of New Mexico and Colorado. Remaining low-probability severe threats in Nebraska and elsewhere fully dissipated by evening.