Evening Storm Surge Eyes Supercell Hazards in KS-MO Corridor — SevereWX

Evening Storm Surge Eyes Supercell Hazards in KS-MO Corridor

A batch of thunderstorms is gearing up for a late-evening punch across eastern Kansas into western and northern Missouri. One storm is already cranking up east of Wichita, with more convective activity bubbling northward amid a diffuse baroclinic zone and incoming warm air advection.

Surface conditions feature a stalled frontal boundary from northern Oklahoma through southeast Kansas, separating cool, moist air to the north from hotter, mixed air to the south. This setup, combined with a subtle midlevel shortwave trough nudging in from western Kansas, is priming the pump for storm development through midnight (10 PM-12 AM CDT).

Forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective shear around 35-45 knots—enough for organization if storms root deeply despite some lingering MLCINH. Early cells could spin up supercell characteristics, posing risks of 1.00-1.75 inch hail, 55-70 mph wind gusts, and even a brief EF2 tornado (up to 90 mph).

As storms push into western Missouri, expect clustering, which could amp up damaging wind threats even as activity starts to elevate. SPC pegs watch odds at 40% in Mesoscale Discussion 1839, valid until 060400Z.

Peak Threats:

Keep an eye on radar trends—WFOs TOP, ICT, EAX, SGF, and LSX are in the loop.

Preparedness: Have multiple alert sources ready, secure outdoor items, and know your safe spot. Severe weather doesn't wait—stay proactive tonight.