Ongoing ND MCS Charges into Minnesota with 80 MPH Gusts, Watch Possible — SevereWX

MCS from North Dakota Eyes Western Minnesota

An organized mesoscale convective system (MCS) is pushing southeast from central and southeastern North Dakota, potentially delivering damaging winds into far northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota this evening.

The Storm Prediction Center highlights this cold-pool-driven storm cluster in Mesoscale Discussion 1726, valid until around 7 PM CDT tomorrow. Ahead of the MCS, robust instability over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE pairs with 40-50 kt shear aligned favorably for strong downdrafts. The primary concern: severe wind gusts of 65-80 mph, capable of snapping tree limbs, downing power lines, and causing widespread damage.

A couple of tornadoes or severe hail up to 1.75 inches can't be ruled out, but gusts remain the top threat. SPC notes a 60% chance of issuing a watch if the MCS holds together against downstream convective inhibition (CIN).

Current radar shows the MCS maintaining structure downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512. If it overcomes CIN, expect it to barrel into west-central Minnesota, prompting a new watch.

Stay prepared: Monitor local NWS updates, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready. Power outages and travel disruptions are possible tonight.